Has Covid-19 peaked in Bangladesh?

Bangladesh has been seeing a declining trend in the number of deaths and infections over the last few days, resulting in the seven-day moving average of daily deaths dropping below 200 for the first time in more than seven weeks.

The country saw the moving average go up above 200 deaths for the first time on July 12, according to ourworldindata.org, a data analyst website.

The seven-day moving average of daily deaths was highest on August 10 when it stood at 252. 

Since then, the moving average has continued to drop gradually. On Tuesday it was 198. 

The daily test positivity rate has also been declining since July 24, dropping under 20% (19.18%) for the first time in eight weeks, according to the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) update released on Tuesday afternoon.

The infection rate dropped below 20% for the first time since June 22. It was 19.36% on that day.

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Although there are several declining trends, health experts have advised waiting a few more days to determine if the country has already passed the peak of the current wave.

Earlier in July, experts had predicted that the Covid situation in the country could peak in August.

Health Minister Zahid Maleque, at a program in the city on Monday, expressed his optimism, with variables in different data relating to Covid showing a decreasing trend.

However, he said there was no room to be satisfied if the infection rate did not drop below 5%. 

The last time Bangladesh recorded the infection rate under 5% was on March 8 this year.

The latest Covid update

The DGHS reported 198 fresh fatalities from Covid-19 and 7,535 new cases in the 24 hours to 8am on Tuesday. 

With the latest tally, the number of nationwide deaths caused by the pandemic now stands at 24,547, while the caseload has risen to 1,433,396.

As many as 39,278 samples were tested across the country.

During the same period, 12,950 people recovered from the disease, taking the total number of recoveries to 1,314,916. 

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The mortality rate against the total number of cases detected so far stands at 1.71%.

Some 8,480,814 tests have been conducted till now, leading to an overall test positivity rate of 16.9%.

Dhaka logged 4,335 cases, the highest among the eight divisions, followed by Chittagong with 1,325 cases, Khulna with 471, Sylhet with 357, and Rajshahi with 333.

Of the 198 deceased – 116 were men and 82 women. So far, 16,149 men (65.79%) and 8,398 women (34.21%) have died from Covid-19 across the country.

Dhaka also logged the highest deaths with 72 fatalities, followed by Chittagong with 52.

Khulna division counted 26 deaths while Sylhet division had 18, Rajshahi nine, Mymensingh eight, Barisal seven and Rangpur six.