Over the past week, several rounds of dialogues have taken place between the Awami League-led 14-Party Alliance, led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, and a number of political parties, one of which involves the ruling party’s arch rival, the BNP.
Despite these dialogues, it seems little has been achieved in finding a middle ground between the government and the major political parties.
With the 11th parliamentary election less than two months away, this has raised concern that Bangladesh might be heading towards a deeper political crisis.
The political dialogues started with the meeting between the ruling party and the Jatiya Oikya Front – a newly formed coalition led by veteran jurist and Gono Forum President Dr Kamal Hossain, which includes BNP as a major element – on November 1.
Following that meeting, Oikya Front leaders expressed frustration, saying the outcome had not been “satisfying.” Dr Kamal Hossain said although the government had accepted two of their seven demands, there was no specific solution to the issues they had raised during the dialogue – including the release of the BNP Chairperson Khaleda Zia from jail.
The Oikya Front sought another dialogue with the government, expecting to resolve last meeting’s stalemate. The dialogue took place on Wednesday, but with little success – the ruling party shot down Oikya Front’s request to postpone the announcement of election schedule, which is due Thursday, until all the issues were resolved.
Earlier this week, the Oikya Front had made the same request to the Election Commission.
Since they did not get the results they had wanted, Oikya Front leaders said they would attempt to fulfill their demands through street movement.
At the post-dialogue press briefing on Wednesday, the BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir reiterated that they were determined to get their demands met through movement, if not with dialogues.
This begs the question: Are we going to see another volatile situation across the country like the violence that took place before 10th general election in 2014?
BNP’s lack of faith in dialogues
During Wednesday's meeting, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina assured the Oikya Front leaders that all the false cases against their recently arrested leaders and activists would be withdrawn, and no further arrests would be made.
That did little to reassure BNP. Mirza Fakhrul said in Wednesday's press briefing that BNP leaders and activists were still getting detained across the country.
Meanwhile, party insiders said the BNP leaders are not happy with Dr Kamal Hossain’s leadership in the Oikya Front.
Requesting anonymity, several BNP leaders said they believed the Awami League-led government would not meet their side of the bargain, and the dialogues would ultimately prove to be a failure in bringing any political solution for the BNP.
Anticipating the worst case scenario, the party has already started preparing to launch an all-out movement, the leaders said.
On Sunday, BNP Standing Committee leaders chalked out plans for the possible movement, including hartals and blockade programs, according to sources.
As per the instructions of the BNP chief Khaleda Zia and Senior Vice-Chairman Tarique Rahman, the party top brass have already sent out instructions to its members to prepare accordingly.
The party has also had a discussion with their most controversial ally, Jamaat-e-Islami, about their role in the movement, sources from the BNP and Jamaat said.
Along with the BNP, leaders of other Oikya Front elements have also said they would take to the streets if their demands are not met.
“We want a fair election,” said Gonoshasthaya Kendra founder Dr Zafarullah Chowdhury, who was a key to the formation of the Oikya Front. “If the prime minister does not meet our demand for an impartialpolls-time government, we will take part in the election under Sheikh Hasina-led election-time government, but she has to promise us that the election will be free, fair and credible.”
The other side
The ruling party welcomed the dialogue, butmanyparty leaders believe that the Oikya Front was formed as a conspiracy against the country.
Awami League General Secretary Obaidul Quader has alleged several times that the Oikya Front leaders had ill intentions, and they are plotting to grab power illegally.
Quader, also the road transport and bridges minster, warned that if the BNP and Oikya Front tried to create anarchy as they did before the 2014 election, they would be dealt with strictly.
What happened last time?
On January 5, 2014, despite the constitutional amendment, the BNP refused to participate in elections as its demand for a caretaker government was not met. Even intervention from the international community and the United Nations failed to bring any kind of reconciliation between the major political parties.
The Awami League won more than 150 seats unopposed in parliament out of the total of 300.
Calling for an election boycott, the BNP and Jamaat activists attacked and killed people who refused to honour blockades, as well as security forces and members of the Awami League.
More than 600 people were killed due to election-related violence prior to the election.
During the vote itself on January 5, opposition activists targeted election officials and attacked schools and other buildings serving as polling places.
On Election Day, opposition activists attacked polling stations and officials.
According to media reports citing the Election Commission, attackers killed three election officials and injured 330 other officials and law enforcement agents. Because of the violence, the commission suspended voting in 597 of 18,000 polling centres.
