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Dhaka Tribune

What a Trump presidency means for COP22

Update : 04 Dec 2016, 07:55 AM

I think it is fair to say that the delegates at the Marrakech had no Plan B ready for the possibility of Mr Trump winning the US presidential elections.

The results of the final vote stunned almost everyone attending the 22nd Conference of Parties (COP22) of the UN climate talks in Marrakech.

After decades of hard work on ensuring climate action, it felt to many that their efforts would be in vain.

I will share my own preliminary views on what the results of the US election means for COP22, the UN climate body, and climate change more generally.

COP22

The meeting in Marrakech ends on November 18 and is mainly meant to discuss the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which was adopted last year in December in Paris.

As President-elect, Trump will not be sworn in until January 2017. Until then, President Obama will remain in the White House and the negotiating position of the US will not be affected during the Marrakech talks.

Another element to consider is that unlike COP21 last year, COP22 is not a major decision-making meeting. Rather, it is a meeting where the decisions adopted in the Paris Agreement are to be implemented.

Hence, it is unlikely that President-elect Trump will bother with interfering in the on-going discussions in Marrakech.

Paris Agreement

Mr Trump has been quoted as saying that if  he was elected, he would tear up the Paris Agreement.

Fortunately, this is not something that he can do as the agreement has already gone into force as of last Friday, November 4.

This means the US is committed to upholding the treaty like every other country that has ratified.

Whether or not the US decides to be part of the problem or part of the solution, around the world people are taking active steps to address climate change

In fact, one of the reasons Obama pushed for the treaty to be ratified in less than a year, making it one of the fastest international agreements to go into force, was to ensure the Paris Agreement became operational whoever the next president of the United States was.

The US negotiation team was also instrumental last year in designing the rules of the Paris Agreement to ensure a country could not effectively withdraw from the treaty for three years.

As such, if Trump officially withdrew from the Paris Agreement next year in 2017, the US would still be party to the treaty until 2020.

Of course, the US could always cease to attend and participate in UN climate meetings, but would remain a member for three years.

Tackling climate change

The most important part of the question, and the one for which there is no clear answer yet, is what the US will do in practice regarding actions to tackle climate change.

Mr Trump has said that he will scrap President Obama’s clean power plan, which is central to the country’s action plan to reduce CO2 emissions by 26-28% by 2025 from 2005 levels.

He also just picked a leading climate sceptic to lead the US Environmental Protection Agency -- Myron Ebell -- who previously argued that President Obama’s ratificaiton of the Paris Agreement was unconsistitutional.

But in some ways, China matters much more than the US right now. Where China goes, the world goes and China is definitely decelerating fossil fuel investments.

Additionally a lot of climate action is occuring at the local or city level, including through the private sector, which will be crucial in the race to reduce emissions.

Whether or not the US decides to be part of the problem or part of the solution -- around the world people are taking active steps to address climate change.

We should be hopeful that this continues regardless of who is in the White House. The important thing is we keep on acting and implementing.

Dr Saleemul Huq is the director of the International Centre on Climate Change and Development at the Independent University, Bangladesh.

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