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Coronavirus: When will we see a drop in the number of infections?

  • Published at 09:51 am April 15th, 2020
Coronavirus-Death-Al Markazul Islami bury Covid-19 victim maintaining WHO guideline-janaza
File photo of a Covid-19 victim given a burial in Dhaka Mahmud Hossain Opu/Dhaka Tribune

In the last few days the number of coronavirus infections has increased alarmingly

In the last few days Bangladesh has seen a sharp rise in the number of Covid-19 patients and deaths across the country since the first cases reported on March 8.

This is occurring while other countries affected by the pandemic are experiencing a downward trend in new infections.

According to some experts, Bangladesh may experience the peak period of coronavirus infection by the end of April while others have predicted that we might have to wait till the end of May. 

However, all of them came to the same conclusion that if the government is able to ensure all necessary preventive measures to fight the deadly virus, we will also see a drop in the number of Covid-19 cases within 45 days. 

It took Bangladesh 28 days to record its first 100 Covid-19 patients. 

As of yesterday, 1,231 people have tested positive for the virus and 50 have died.

If we take a close look at the data provided by the government, on Sunday, 139 people were found to be infected by Covid-19. 

On Monday, that number rose to 182 and on Tuesday, for the first time ever, the authorities reported more than 200 (209) coronavirus cases across Bangladesh.

When the numbers are added up, we can see that the total number of coronavirus patients which was 100 on the 28th day since the first cases were reported, shot up to 1,012, within the span of only eight days (till April 14), confirming the exponential growth in coronavirus infections in Bangladesh. 

According to Rashid E Mahbub, a health specialist and former president of Bangladesh Medical Association (BMA): "If the government does everything accordingly to combat the virus, we might undergo the peak of coronavirus infection from April 20 to April 22.

“And in order to do so, to detect so many coronavirus patients in such a short period of time, the government has to take some quick and strict measures like setting up a large number of testing and isolation facilities across the country.

"All those who have been quarantined and also those who are residents of the recognized coronavirus hotspots have to be tested for the virus. Otherwise it will not be clear as to how many people have been infected by the virus.

“Then we have to isolate the ones who are found to be infected by Covid-19 so that transmission of the virus is reduced and controlled,” he concluded.

As of yesterday, 104,969 people have been quarantined across the country, said the Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research (IEDCR).

So far, the authorities concerned have tested only 14,868 individuals for coronavirus. 

According to the DGHS, at present some 17 labs are conducting coronavirus tests while 11 more will soon start operations. 

The countries currently battling the coronavirus outbreak, apart from China, reported their highest number of patients within the 38th and 76th day since first detection.

According to the Worldometer data for the US, the highest number of people getting infected by coronavirus in one day stood at 34,196, on the 50th day since the first reported case.

UK experienced that massive jump in numbers on the 56th day with 8,681, France on the 49th day with 23,060, Germany on 42nd day with 6,933 and Spain on the 41st day with 8,271, Italy on the 36th day with 6,557 and Iran on the 41st day with 3,186 since first detection.

According to Professor Saif Ullah Munshi, chairman of the virology department of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU): "For now we can’t predict the peak and decline of coronavirus infection in the country. In France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Iran the number of new cases is going down. This downward slope depends on how a country handles the battle against the virus.

“If everything goes according to plan, we can predict the peak infection time after May,” he added.

He said: “We will have to maintain the lockdowns strictly. Finally it depends on how people react to this Covid-19" he added.

IEDCR Director Dr Meerjady Sabrina Flora could not be reached for comment in this regard.

The fast spreading Covid-19 has so far killed 121,000 people in more than 200 countries and territories.