Why the threat is imminent
Situated at the junction of the Indian, Eurasian and Burmese Plates, Bangladesh is perhaps one of the most tectonically active regions in the world. Active faults can be found along the boundary of the Indian and Eurasian Plates, one of which is the Dauki fault. The fault was found in 2016 by a team of researchers led by Dr Michael Steckler from Columbia University.
The study has revealed that the fault is closer to Dhaka city than they had previously thought, which means that the source of earthquakes could be closer to Dhaka City as well. Seismology fundamentally states that the larger the fault, the greater the magnitude of its potential earthquake .The Dauki fault is 300 kilometres long and 100 kilometres wide.
However, that’s not all. The Madhupur fault, which lies to the north of Dhaka City, and the Plate Boundary 2 fault, which lies to our east, are also active faults.
In another study conducted in 2014 as part of the Bangladesh Urban Earthquake Resilience Project, it was estimated that a Magnitude 7.5 earthquake on the Madhupur fault and a Magnitude 8 one on the Plate Boundary 2 fault would have the greatest impact on this urban metropolis. The Dhaka Profile and Earthquake Risk Atlas was compiled from the results of the 2014 study, it showed estimates of expected losses from a postulated event of Magnitude 7.5 along the Madhupur fault. Fatalities alone would exceed 50,000 and approximately another 200,000 individuals would suffer from injuries.
From their research, experts have been able to predict that the threat of an earthquake of Magnitude 8.2-9.0, much like the one in 1897, is looming on the horizon.
According to a study conducted in 2016, researchers have further been able to calculate, albeit roughly, the time between earthquakes. The rocks along the Dauki fault system are moving very slowly, which is indicative of long periods of time between major earthquakes. Dr Leonardo Seeber, a research professor who was part of the team said that these large gaps of time made it easy to overlook the threat that lurks beneath the surface.
Dr Raquib Ahsan, Director at BUET-Japan Institute of Disaster Prevention and Urban Safety (BUET-JIDPUS) and Professor of Civil Engineering, BUET, says, “Regarding earthquakes, the initial concern is altitude of hazard on the cards, and after that comes its consequence in the context of Bangladesh. By looking at history, the risk of earthquake is always there although no one can say when it will occur.”
Steady or not
Dhaka, being one of the world’s most densely populated cities, has been identified as a danger zone for earthquakes. With a growing average of more than 45,000 people per square kilometre and a rapidly increasing population of more than 15 million people just within the wider metro area, not only is it one of the most crowded cities, but it is also one of the fastest-growing cities as well.
When cities rise from the ground practically overnight, it’s no surprise that most of the structures are built poorly. Most of these structures involve brick-masonry and unplanned construction, with more than 80% of them being non-engineered. While that doesn’t automatically mean they will collapse in the event of an earthquake, it certainly puts us in a risky situation.
The postulated magnitude 7.5 earthquake in the 2014 study also estimated US $5.7 billion in losses and damage to 180,000 buildings.
BUET-Japan Institute of Disaster Prevention and Urban Safety (BUET-JIDPUS) has been researching earthquake resistant design and retrofitting of reinforced concrete buildings. Some of the assessments of already built structures are firstly, soft structures which don’t have walls on the ground floor, and secondly, have no beam above slabs, along with asymmetrical placement of concrete walls.
“Most of the buildings had been built without following standard building codes thanks to rapid urbanization and population density. Given that the presumptive array of damage including economic loss and loss of lives will be huge if any earthquake of a big magnitude takes place, at present the key step would be to be prepared,” added Raquib Ahsan.
In order to reduce the scale of damage, both structural and non-structural mitigation measures must be undertaken. Structural measures, such as strengthening of code provisions and correcting common building practices, can reduce the risk of damage to any type of building.
Raquib Ahsan noted that it brings hope that policy makers are currently aware about the fatality of earthquakes, which was absent before and are taking more initiatives. Many projects are being undertaken by the government in affiliation with International organizations such as the World Bank and United Nations Development Projects.
The government of Bangladesh has undertaken the Bangladesh Urban Resilience Project (URP) in two cities, Dhaka and Sylhet with financing from the International Development Association (IDA) which is a wing of The World Bank and implementing agencies Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakhha, Department of Disaster Management, Dhaka North City Corporation, Project Coordination and Monitoring Unit.
Abdul Latif Helaly ,Project Director, Urban Resilience Project: Rajdhani Unnayan Kartripakkha Part stated that with components which include vulnerability assessment and essential facilities, initially with government and quasi-government, soil testing, create and operationalize an Urban Resilience Unit (URU) in RAJUK, establish an electronic construction permitting system, set up a professional accreditation program for engineers, architects and planners in order to improve building code enforcement within RAJUK jurisdiction etc. He said, “Through soil testing it can be identified which land is appropriate for what type of structure. Finishing off with soil testing of Dhaka city, results will be added to the DAP plan. The goal is to develop risk-sensitive land use planning as a practice in Bangladesh.”
“To assure safety measures and quality control, there is plan of building a skilled workforce (including engineers, architects, planners and masons) associated with construction through accreditation program. All the data of the skilled manpower will be controlled through electronic system and citizens have to select the workforce from within the list. This is to avoid people opting for unskilled manpower and eliminate hazards by earthquake,” he mentioned. He also stated that seven international consultants will be engaged in order to complete the objectives.
Ready for the rescue?
In critical situations like an earthquake, first responders are crucial to minimizing fatalities. With that in mind, how well equipped are we as a nation? As citizens, what are our responsibilities in times of disaster and are we aware of them?
Major Shakil Newaz, director (operation and maintenance) of Bangladesh Fire Service and Civil Defense (BFSCD) said, “It is not possible to provide emergency response in the event of a sudden-onset disaster like earthquake all alone by Bangladesh Fire Service and Civil Defence. Thus, building the culture of harmony and synergy among different stakeholders of society is needed to revive from any devastation.”
The department has 5,000 professional fire-fighters who are skilled to defy any kind of disaster. Among them the number of female fire-fighters is not more than 50.
“The major challenge to the fire-fighters is being present in the damaged location at the earliest during emergency period because of several reasons, for example road blocks. The surrounding community can serve the initial necessities to alleviate further casualties in such situation. Each institution of the society, from families to organizations must have a dedicated line-up to respond instantly”, Newaz noted. Addressing the importance of community involvement, he said, “In order to act as a first responder, the communities or even individuals should be well trained in dealing with such a situation.”
The government has planned to create an association called ‘urban community volunteers’ with around 62,000 people to act as first responders in the event of a disaster, out of which 40,000 have already been trained. Showing concern to the sustainability of the initiative, Newaz thinks only a three day long training program is not enough to arm them with adequate knowledge and skills to operate as it should be. “There is question of sustainability with regard to the continuous involvement of these volunteers. If the volunteers don’t go through any rehabilitation and motivation on a continuous basis, what would make them feel connected?”
According to Bangladesh Statistics 2017 by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) Indicators, the female population is 74.5 million among a total population of 158.9 million people. Discussing the reluctance towards female participation among communities, Newaz went on to say, “How can a country combat such natural disasters without including half of its population?”
According to Dr Raquib Ahsan, it is a good sign that many programs have been started yet the periphery of such work should be extended.
Talking about the incorporation of disaster management and defense mechanisms in mainstream education to raise awareness among citizens, the director of BFSCD, Shakil Newaz said, “Basic knowledge and training to become a responder should be made mandatory in schools, colleges and universities. If this can be introduced, it will automatically lead to community involvement.”
Furthermore, Dr Raquib Ahsan said, “It is unfortunate that growth of awareness among general people hasn’t been completely achieved in our country.”
