The much hyped and much anticipated first presidential debate between maverick business tycoon turned politician Donald Trump and veteran politician Hillary Clinton took place on Monday. It was all but what was ballyhooed in the press recently.
It began with a whimper and ended with a thud, not from blustering Donald Trump, but from Hillary Clinton. The media had predicted that the debate would attract millions (and it did attract a record 84 million viewers), but it also anticipated a probable mutation of Trump into a more malleable contestant contrite for all his bombast that characterised his rise to this stage.
But none of that change happened.
Donald Trump has defied all predictions in the past, by both media and public in general. When he began his impossible journey in this hazardous race to presidential candidacy, he was only known for his so-called real estate empire dominated by towers and casinos, and his TV celebrity status as the host of a show called The Apprentice.
He had also called attention to himself by going after President Obama calling him a non-citizen who had manipulated his way to presidency by hiding his birth place, Kenya. He steadfastly held on to this canard even though Obama published his birth certificate (he was born in Hawaii), because he knew his lie played well with a section of the American population who despised Obama being POTUS.
Donald Trump followed in the trail of his Obama hatred to seek nomination for US presidency from the Republican Party, a party he had joined only recently after leaving it many times before. As a businessman, Trump had contributed to both major parties for all these years (as he himself had claimed) because as the shrewd operator that he had always been, Trump wanted to be seen as an independent who could support any side he chose.
The day of living independently came to an end first with open declaration of hostility toward Obama with his infamous “birther conspiracy,” and later by declaring his candidacy for Republican nomination. But the Republican Party establishment was not prepared to welcome Trump into its arms, not so much for his Obama birth controversy, but because of his unstable character and predilections for pompousness and self-promotion that bordered on narcissism.
Trump was known for frequent changes in positions suiting his selfish objectives and changing tunes according to the flavour of the day. He was never considered a conservative because of his sponsorship of events that contradict conservative ideals.
He had never associated himself with conservative causes such as the anti-abortion movement, fiscal conservatism, opposition to same sex marriages, etc. But most important of all, he had never held a political office of any recognition to deserve even remote consideration for the Republican presidential nomination.
And yet, despite all these odds stacked against him, Donald Trump succeeded in defeating not one or two, but an array of 16 other presidential hopefuls seeking nomination of the Republican Party. And these candidates were no mere political non-entities. They included current and former governors of states, sitting US senators, and people of political eminence who had spent years in politics and had served their party.
He tried to bluster his way out, as before, but unlike the rallies he is used to, he had no cheering supporters to back him in the debate
Many reasons have been cited for Trump’s triumph, not least of which are his ability to tune to the dormant anger and angst of a so-called down-trodden white population, who have been disillusioned and dismayed by their falling economic status and fear of a growing foreign born population, thinking they are the main cause of their falling status.
To this, Trump added the false notion of job losses in the US because of free trade, loss of US status as a super powerhouse because of the US’s inability to bring down militancy abroad, and continuous incidents of domestic terrorism. Trump blamed not only Obama and his government for whatever is wrong in the country, but also what he called the conventional politics and mainstream politicians -- including the party he was seeking nomination from.
The more Trump railed against the politicians and used foul rhetoric to disparage Obama and the government, the more support he got from the people he had been able to corral. His rallies grew in numbers and soon he was able to outnumber his opponents to secure the nomination. His supporters were so enthralled by him that they no longer cared what language he used or whether he dilutes facts with fiction. All they cared about is that he was different from others, and they began to believe that he was their voice.
It was too late when the Republican Party realised that the Trump train could not be stopped. Therefore, the party establishment had to swallow his rise and anoint him as the Republican presidential nominee.
But the party expected changes in Trump’s behaviour, and indeed it was an unwritten agreement with Trump that he would mend his ways, particularly his language against minorities and some of his bone-headed policy statements (such as expulsion of some 11 million illegal immigrants, ban on Muslim migration, building a wall with Mexico, charging fees for protecting Japan, etc).
Indeed, a few weeks before the first debate, Trump started to change his tone on some of the issues beginning with illegal immigrants, Muslim travel ban, NATO membership, etc. He started to say that he would actually not repatriate all 11 million illegal immigrants, but only those who have criminal records, and not actually ban travel of Muslims to the US, but only those from known terrorist areas. But the most famous flip flop was about Obama’s birth place -- he finally agreed that Obama was actually born in the US.
Unfortunately, the first debate failed to rise to the level that Trump’s minders wanted to. For the first 15 minutes, Trump remained a little subdued, uttering laboured sentences that would make him less of a fighting bull than he had appeared publicly before. He tried to remain polite. But as time progressed, Trump was peppered with questions on all of the statements he had made before. He revealed his true colours then -- a person who has little knowledge of the economy, international trade, or politics, and even domestic policy. He tried to bluster his way out, as before, but unlike the rallies he is used to, he had no cheering supporters to back him in the debate.
The presidential debates are only a small process in the US presidential elections which began with Nixon-Kennedy race in the 60s. These debates do not forecast the election results by any means. But these surely help the voters, particularly the independent voters, to assess the candidates and vote ultimately.
The debates may not sway the Republican or Democratic voters one way or another, but this first debate must show even to the most indolent voter how risky it is to vote for a candidate who has no skill or knowledge to handle the duty of the US presidency.
Ziauddin Choudhury has worked in the higher civil service of Bangladesh early in his career, and later for the World Bank in the USA.
