Mahmudur Rahman. The country’s most divisive figure. And the country is clearly divided. Mahmudur Rahman is the unchallenged leader of one side of that division. BNP is now only a side-show. And I don’t think BNP realises it yet. When BNP calls a hartal, 50 kids stand, laugh, and chant slogans. But when Mahmudur Rahman organised a crowd, almost 500,000 showed up. Mahmudur Rahman was not the excuse for that crowd, he called them. Look closely, Mahmudur Rahman broke his hunger strike at whose request? Allama Shafi.
BNP thinks Mahmudur is standing with their support? Sorry, but that’s not the case. The force is with Mahmudur Rahman now, to borrow from Star Wars.
Tarique Zia is in exile. In the last three months, so much water went down the Brahmaputra, but we didn’t even feel the presence of Tarique. Who is this Zubaida Rahman that Khaleda wants to set into the field? The public accepted Khaleda as the wife of President Zia with his image of honesty. But would they by default accept Tarique Zia’s wife? It’s not a sure bet.
The Bangladeshi people are totally fed up with AL’s oppression. So who is left? Who is government’s biggest opposition?
That person’s name is Mahmudur Rahman. And if you think he has no ambition, you are mistaken. Because every person in Bangladesh, all the way down to the person working in your house, thinks they can run the country better than these two unqualified women. That same thought could be in Mahmudur Rahman’s head.
And Mahmudur Rahman’s history shows that he has never shown absolute loyalty to Khaleda Zia or BNP. There’s an article of his circulating on the internet, I think the title is “Khaleda Zia has nothing left, BNP is finished.”
Now if he wanted to enter the fray with a new political party, he would get the support of Hefazat types, the nationalist types, and those who do not consider Tarique a viable alternative because of his history of corruption. All these forces combined create a big group in Bangladesh.
Many people don’t want to understand that AL and BNP are complementary forces. Without BNP, AL cannot survive and vice versa. Let us bring this concept into the language of theory. There is a popular theory called “game theory.” It was designed by John Nash, about whom the amazing film “A Beautiful Mind” was made, starring Russel Crowe.
Nash theorised that a society, state, or corporation always tries to attain maximum advantage for itself. We use all our strength and knowledge to take decisions that offer us maximum advantage and give our opponents maximum disadvantage. On the other hand, our opponents do the exact same thing.
Now if everyone continues to harm each other like this, civilisation should be destroyed. Why doesn’t that happen? Remember in algebra, two negatives lead to a positive. You are harming them, they are harming you. These two sides cancel out, and society, or the state, stays in equilibrium. Nash proved all this with math, and designed the Nash Equilibrium.
If this equilibrium is disturbed, both sides work to maintain stability, so they can continue to harm each other equally. If there is an imbalance, it cannot be sustained for very long.
Now, apply this equation to AL and BNP. Each group harms the other, puts them in jail, makes them disappear. They do it in a way that their respective empires should collapse. But instead the two parties have been in equilibrium for 20 years.
In more recent times, the equilibrium is breaking down. AL has continuously filled police ranks with loyalists, done the same with the special BCS cadre, provided licensed arms to militia-type groups of their own party, handed over all national wealth to their party people. Their strength keeps increasing.
On the other hand, BNP is leaderless and growing weaker. So the Nash Equilibrium is falling apart. In order to return it to equilibrium, new forces will keep trying to fill the void, and we have to see which of them will last.
That is why sometimes Nagarik Shakti’s Mahmudur Rahman Manna makes waves. In Prothom Alo, Dr Yunus’ brother Md Jahangir said that the youth need to organise - Hefazat got organised. When Shahbag stood up, I was one of those who said: expand your message.
If you have the chance to grab control of the car, don’t be satisfied with just the steering wheel. But they did not take control, and the reason is explained in thousands of Facebook notes.
But of all the forces that stood up recently, none showed the level of ambition, or became as powerful a force as Mahmudur Rahman.
BNP lacks leadership and is in limbo. The nationalists are looking for a voice, a leader. Mahmudur Rahman is now related to Hefazat. Jamaat, cornered by Shahbag is ready to make Mahmudur Rahman their chief at any moment.
Now if Mahmudur Rahman decides to dump BNP and advance on his own, it’s a dangerous situation for AL. Because there’s a huge difference between the nationalism of Mahmudur Rahman, and the nationalism of BNP.
Those who think BNP is a right-wing party, have never experienced the ultra-right wing.
And as a person, Mahmdur Rahman has very strong principles. Look at his hunger strike. It was to demand that the case against his mother, and against Daily Sangram be lifted. A very principled position, he did not go on strike to ask that charges against him be lifted.
Mahmudur Rahman served jail before this as well. For “contempt of court.” When any other newspaper editor in Bangladesh was dragged to court on these charges, they begged forgiveness to escape a jail sentence. But not Mahmudur Rahman.
You may not like him, and therefore ignore him – but you cannot cancel him. Mahmudur Rahman has already risen as a credible force. Hefazat’s huge April rally surprised everyone. It showed us that the song and story that our media feeds us day and night is not the whole – there is a huge community that falls outside this tale. And Mahmudur Rahman has been able to tap into that community.
AL may not study game theory, but they are fully aware of Mahmudur Rahman’s strength.
What AL does not understand is that if you keep acquiring unlimited power, and break the spine of a political party that is just as unprincipled and corrupt as you, eventually that will destroy the political equilibrium. And this will bring about the destruction of the AL itself. Whether it is through Mahmudur Rahman or Mahmudur Rahman Manna or anyone else.
To save itself, it is urgent for AL to help BNP to survive. But will the power-blind Awami League understand that in time?
An abbreviated version of this article was translated from the original Bangla and posted on alalodulal.org.
