India’s Narenda Modi’s election promise to “send back Bangladeshi illegals,” his subsequent victory in the Lok Sabha polls, and finally his announcement to set up a home ministry unit for driving out “Bangladeshis” seemed to have been received with quite a lot of unease in Bangladesh. Our political leaders wasted absolutely no time to congratulate Modi for his electoral victory. Since Modi had already sent out an anti-Bangladesh vibe, our politicians were also seen at unease. They already know that Modi is no Vajpayee, and they aren’t very comfortable with Modi and his party coming at the helms in India.
On the other hand, there’s also a flurry of discontent and resentment being displayed by Bangladeshi people at large on social media. Even the pro-rightists in this country were seen expressing anger at the fact that Modi had won. It looks clear that Modi and his party have been successful in scaring the Bangladeshi politicians as well as its people. To us, it seems that from now on, India would become a Bangladesh-basher. It would do all possible things against Bangladesh.
However, to my mind, the rioter of Gujarat and the winner of Delhi’s power may be two different persons. As the prime minister of India, Modi wouldn’t cling on to his idealism, what he had done by instigating the killings in back 2002. There’s a difference between grabbing and winning power. What he did in 2002 was meant for grabbing power.
And now, he’s won the power. No matter what Modi might be trying against Bangladesh, it would all depend on how India as a “state” reacts to his wants when he starts as the chief executive of the country. The rioter’s mind in Modi is bound to change. The state machinery would change him, as he won’t have the scope of acting like a local goon.
Delhi’s throne will turn him into a statesman, and he would consider everything very diplomatically. A state like India doesn’t change its core policies everyday.
Bashing Bangladesh may seem quite easy, but dealing with Dhaka may not be as easy as it seems. Modi might have played his campaign tricks and gained in the North-East, but it may not be that simple to drive the “illegal Bangladeshis” out from there. Moreover, the region isn’t altogether trouble-free, it’s not something that the Indian government could control in one go. The problems in the north-east have been continuing for a long time, and Bangladesh did play some role in allowing their problems to continue.
India is quite aware of these facts. It’s also aware of the fact if Bangladesh wants, the presence of Pakistani agencies along the eastern border may increase.
On the western border, Modi would have to deal with a local hostile power: Mamata Banarjee. The news is already out that Prime Minister-elect Modi’s first official visit as head of state could be to Dhaka, where he is expected to sign the Teesta water-sharing agreement with Bangladesh. The issue has already been discussed at length during Modi’s telephone conversation with Hasina, who not only requested Modi to make Bangladesh his first foreign destination as prime minister, but to also consider Dhaka his “second home.” So, he is up for another brawl with the West Bengal chief minister.
Bangladesh is certainly a concern for Delhi. If you see the global terrorism scenario, India is one of the most affected countries that has to withstand Islamic extremism. India has, by now, become an abode of the so-called al-Qaeda, and is experiencing the brunt of its scourge. The scenario isn’t likely to change as a Hindu extremist party would be in power from now on. As Modi becomes part of India’s core policymaking body, he would know that there are many elements in Bangladesh who have the capability to add fuel into the fire.
Some elements in Bangladesh have all the potential to further radicalise India. Now, look at the India’s two biggest foreign allies: USA and China. Delhi has been enjoying very good ties with these two states, but no one seems to trust each other. Both Washington and Beijing are working with India with some sort of suspicion. On the other hand, these two powers are seeking their influence on Bangladesh.
They both want to increase their presence in the Bay of Bengal areas. Therefore, it doesn’t mean that Bangladesh won’t have anywhere to go if Modi’s India starts bashing Dhaka.
Like I said, countries such as India don’t change their policies overnight when a government comes to power. Delhi will also consider the amount of illegal remittances that enter that country while dealing with Dhaka.
