In June 2015, when the real estate moghul and TV reality show host Donald Trump announced his candidacy for Republican nomination as a presidential candidate, most people thought it was another stunt by the egocentric billionaire.
He began with a slogan “make America great again,” and followed it up with rallies across America denigrating anyone and everyone who he claimed was responsible for the “economic mess” that the country was going through. His first target was illegal immigrants, mainly from Mexico, who he blamed for murder, loot, and rape in America.
He famously declared that he would build a wall, more than 1,400 miles in length, along the US-Mexico border to stop Mexicans from coming to the US, and to boot, he would make the Mexican government pay for the wall. Why, because the wall would be built to stop Mexicans not the other way round, and Mexico has made “a fortune” by having US companies shift their production to Mexico after the North American Free Trade agreement.
But while the saner section of people in the US were appalled by such outlandish statements from Trump, and corporations severed ties with Donald Trump for such blanket accusations of Mexicans, a large section of people cheered Trump. His poll numbers among Republican loyalists shot up. Thus began the improbable ascent of Donald Trump in the popularity ladder of Republican presidential hopefuls that at the time numbered 16.
Since June, Donald Trump has blustered his way to popularity, albeit among Republican loyalists, and has continued to dominate the Republican candidate debates.
Derision, ridicule, and contempt have characterised Trump’s presidential campaign. No amount of personal attack on other presidential hopefuls, present or past, no amount of denigration of other religious or ethnic groups by Trump seemed to deter his ascendancy in the popularity scale.
He said Senator McCain was not a war hero because he was captured by the Vietnamese; he ridiculed facial features of Carly Fiorina, a Republican presidential hopeful, and then upped the list by calling for the banning of Muslims from entering the US.
Every time he uttered a personally derogatory remark against his opponents, or made a racially provocative comment, people wondered whether that would bring an end to his rise and conclude his rather surreal quest for the presidency. But to everyone’s amazement, particularly the political pundits, he not only retained his ascendancy in the polls, he even bested his previous standings.
The rise of Donald Trump and his continued ascendancy in popularity among the Republican supporters not only fazes the US public in general, but also the Republican Party establishment (the Republican establishment refers to the permanent political class and structure that makes up the Republican Party.
The establishment tends to control the rules of the party system, party elections, and funding disbursements). This is because Donald Trump is not, nor has been, a part of the old Republican Party system.
In fact, for much of his business career, Donald Trump has been apolitical, more busy building his business empire and contributing to both parties. He even boasted of contributing to Hillary Clinton’s senate campaign.
Much as the Republican Party establishment and others may express amazement or even dismay at the Trump triumph, the Donald factor in the upcoming Republican nomination for presidency will be a crucial decision point.
So far, his popularity and draw-in rallies have been attributed to the disenchantment of the Republican Party supporters at the grassroots and working class level with the party itself, and their falling economic status relative to others.
Analysts have pointed out Trump’s ability to exploit this disaffection and fear further by incorporating exogenous elements such as illegal migration, Islamic militancy, and a perception of declining US economy.
But even as Donald Trump continued to corral support from the Republicans, the mainstream party leaders as well as other non-Republicans believed for quite some time that the Donald Trump balloon would burst sooner or later, as other more moderate and pro-establishment candidates gain ground among party supporters.
Unfortunately, none of this wishful thinking has proved true so far, and the Trump train keeps on chugging at full speed.
The silver lining in the cloud that seems to envelop the Republican political sky now is that there are several hurdles that Donald Trump (as well as other Republican Presidential nomination hopefuls) will have to cross before the party convention in July. These are gaining delegates from presidential primaries and caucuses that would be held from February through June.
Candidates with the highest number of delegates will gain nomination (the party convention for presidential nomination is a formality now, as delegates affiliation to the candidates is already known from the primaries and caucuses. The candidate getting majority votes in primaries and caucuses becomes automatically the unofficial presidential nominee of the party).
The Republican Party establishment still hopes that their party will be spared the unlikely scenario of having to endorse Donald Trump, the maverick who will probably be the undoing of the GOP, after all the primaries and caucuses are held.
They, as well as other independent voters, are hoping that the emotions that are in display in Trump rallies now are transient, and sanity among the rank and files of the party will ultimately rule.
What happens between now and July is probably speculation now, but as of now, the Republicans cannot wish away the Trump factor.
Even as many old Republicans have expressed serious doubts about an ultimate victory for Trump in the delegates gathering race, they would face a tremendous challenge in casting their party as a party of inclusion and not of division should Trump succeed.
No one knows whether it is the Republican Party that will change to accommodate Trump, or Trump himself will change to accommodate the party establishment. In either case, people in the country as well as the world will watch eagerly in the coming six months the Trump drama in the US as it unfolds.
