Corruption scandals, tear gas in the streets and unrest in Congress, things are looking ugly for Brazilian President Michel Temer and his bid to turn around Latin America's biggest economy. His government cheered after the Senate voted Tuesday to approve an unprecedented 20-year spending freeze as the cornerstone of an austerity package.
"This was a historic measure," said Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, picked by Temer to pull Brazil out of its deepest recession in decades. But Temer, who took power earlier this year after the bruising impeachment of the leftist former president Dilma Rousseff, has little else to celebrate.
The second part of his austerity package, raising the minimum retirement age, faces a more hostile reception in Congress while street protests are becoming increasingly heated. And hanging over the entire government, including Temer, is the specter of an ever-expanding corruption probe centred on the Petrobras state oil company that has sent Brazil's elite into a panic.
Crumbling credibility
Many Brazilians breathed a sigh of relief when Rousseff was dismissed in August. Elected to a second term in 2014, she had become hugely unpopular as Brazil slid into a seemingly bottomless pit of economic decline and corruption.
Temer, a centre-right veteran who had been her vice president in an uncomfortable coalition, automatically took over the rest of her term to 2018. Far from serving as a place-holder, however, Temer installed a new government and embarked on a radical shake-up, turning the page on more than a decade of leftist policies.
However, Temer lacked the political legitimacy of a presidential election and rapidly became almost as unpopular as Rousseff, with only 10 percent currently saying his government is doing a good job. Unlike Rousseff, Temer still enjoys strong congressional backing, but it is showing cracks.
Support in the Senate for the spending ceiling shrank from 61 senators in a first vote to 53 in the decisive round Tuesday. There are also signs that infighting in Temer's coalition will make support for pension reforms, which are up next, even harder.
And popular protests are growing in intensity. Although far smaller than the huge crowds pushing for Rousseff's impeachment, anti-Temer demonstrators have stood out in the last few weeks for violent clashes with riot police.
Corruption whirlpool
Last month, leftist legislators filed a request for Temer's impeachment. Michael Mohallem, a law professor and politics expert at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, said Temer is not yet likely to fall.
The situation "is as critical as it was before, if not more, with president Rousseff," he said. "But he has major support from Congress, so that route is very unlikely to be followed." "But as the environment becomes more complex, his situation is becoming more fragile."
At the core of Temer's problems is a gigantic corruption scandal centred on Petrobras that is sucking down much of Congress and the government. The aggressive probe, dubbed named Operation Carwash, has already claimed several members of the cabinet.
On Wednesday, Temer's close advisor Jose Yunes became the latest to step down after he was implicated in the probe. The infrastructure investment chief, Wellington Moreira Franco, was also on the verge of resigning, Brazilian media reported. Leaked testimony has accused Temer himself of having asked Odebrecht for potentially illegal donations. He says he did nothing wrong.
As if that weren't enough, the Supreme Electoral Court is looking into whether Rousseff's 2014 election victory, with Temer on her ticket, should be annulled because of ill-gotten campaign funds. In that case, Temer would have to stand down for snap elections.
