Developing Asia to contract by 0.4% in 2020, grow by 6.8% in 2021

Developing Asia is forecasted to undergo overall contraction of 0.4% in 2020, less than the 0.7% envisaged in September.

However, growth is expected to rebound to 6.8% in 2021, although output is likely to remain below what was envisioned before the pandemic.

Asian Development Bank (ADB) released the forecasts in a report, titled “Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 Supplement: Paths Diverge in Recovery from the Pandemic,” on Thursday.

Projected growth in East Asia for 2020 has been updated from 1.3% to 1.6% in the latest report as China and Taipei recovered more quickly than originally expected. Growth of East Asia in 2021 is still forecasted at 7.0%. China's GDP is expected to grow by 2.1% in 2020 and 7.7% in 2021.

For South Asia, the earlier forecast of 6.8% contraction in 2020 has been updated to 6.1% in line with an improved projection for India. Growth of 7.2% is expected for south Asia and 8.0% for India in 2021.

Recovery in Southeast Asia continues to lag as virus containment efforts in the larger economies hamper economic activity. Subregional forecasts are downgraded for 2020 from 3.8% contraction to 4.4%, and for 2021 from 5.5% growth to 5.2%.

Central Asia is still projected to contract by 2.1% in 2020, and the Pacific economies by 6.1%.

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