• Monday, Jul 04, 2022
  • Last Update : 04:24 pm

Analysis: China, Pakistan, India jockey for position in Afghanistan's new Great Game

  • Published at 10:15 pm August 23rd, 2021
Taliban in Kabul
Taliban fighters travel on a vehicle in the Karte Mamorin area of Kabul on August 22, 2021 AFP

As the Taliban takes over in the strategic, landlocked nation, the new Great Game has Pakistan in control, with its ally China looking to cement its grip on the region

The Russian and British empires battled over Afghanistan in the 19th century, and the United States and the Soviet Union in the 20th. As the Taliban takes over in the strategic, landlocked nation, the new Great Game has Pakistan in control, with its ally China looking to cement its grip on the region.

Pakistan has deep ties with the Taliban and has been accused of supporting the Islamist group as it battled the US-backed government in Kabul - charges denied by Islamabad. When the Taliban captured Kabul last week, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan said Afghans had broken the "shackles of slavery."

As the Taliban holds discussions to decide on its government model, media reports have said some Pakistani officials are involved.

A Foreign Office spokesperson in Islamabad said Pakistan wanted an inclusive political settlement in Afghanistan that ensured peace and stability in the region but added the "key role remains with the Afghans".

Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi meets with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political chief of Afghanistan's Taliban, in Tianjin on July 28, 2021 / Reuters 

China, with no previous involvement in Afghanistan but a strong alliance with Pakistan, has held out an olive branch to the Taliban, enticed by the country's mineral wealth, including its large reserves of lithium, a key component for electric vehicles. China is also looking at the prospect of extra security for its narrow land route through the Karakoram mountains into Pakistan.

And then there is India - Pakistan's old enemy, which has been locked in a military standoff with China along their disputed border for more than a year. India was a key supporter of the ousted regime in Kabul and as both Pakistan and China become key players in a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, New Delhi's nervousness in increasing.

China however says its main aim in reaching out to the Taliban is to protect its western Xinjiang region from anti-Beijing East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) militants, who could seek sanctuary within Afghanistan.

The US government says ETIM no longer exists as a formal organization and is instead a broad label China uses to oppress a variety of Muslim ethnic groups, including Uighurs, in its Xinjiang region. China denies all accusations of abuse.

A Taliban fighter looks on as he stands at the city of Ghazni, Afghanistan on August 14, 2021 / Reuters

China has dangled the prospect of providing the two things the Taliban needs to govern Afghanistan: diplomatic recognition and much-needed infrastructure and economic assistance, said Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi.

"An opportunistic China is certain to exploit the new opening to make strategic inroads into mineral-rich Afghanistan and deepen its penetration of Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia," he said.

Bitter memories

There was much cheering in Pakistan over India's discomfiture at the turn of events, said Raza Ahmad Rumi, a political commentator, who teaches at Ithaca College in New York. The two countries have fought three wars since they became independent nations when the subcontinent was divided in 1947.

India has bitter memories of the previous Taliban stint in power from 1996 to 2001 and the group's links to Pakistan.

An Indian Airlines plane was hijacked in 1999 and ultimately landed in Kandahar in southern Afghanistan. New Delhi freed three senior Pakistani militants in its jails in exchange for the return of the passengers and the Taliban allowed the hijackers and the released prisoners to go to Pakistan.

"Our position today is one of adjusting to reality. We have to play the long game in Afghanistan. We don't have a contiguous border, but we have stakes there," said Jayant Prasad, a former Indian ambassador to Kabul.

Taliban fighters on a pick-up truck move around a market area, flocked with local Afghan people, in Kabul on August 17, 2021 / AFP

Over the past year as the Taliban emerged as a dominant force and US-brokered negotiations began in Doha, Indian diplomats had opened a line with the group, diplomatic sources in New Delhi said.

However, India as a major economic player can be attractive to the Taliban, looking to avoid an over-dependence on China, the source said.

India has development projects in every one of Afghanistan's 34 provinces, small and big, including the parliament building in Kabul that it built, which was over-run by gun-toting Taliban men after sweeping into the city last week.

A senior member of the Taliban has told Reuters that impoverished Afghanistan needs help from countries in the region, including Iran, as well as the United States and Russia.

"We expect them to help us, to support our people, especially the health sector and especially the business sector and mining sector," said Waheedullah Hashimi, who has access to the group's decision-making.

"Our job is to convince them to accept us."

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